As the nation approaches this critical electoral event, the political arena brims with fervor and activity. Parties engage in strategic maneuvers, forming alliances, and orchestrating campaigns while exchanging accusations aimed at maximizing electoral gains at the expense of their rivals.
All main political are actively engaged in the electoral process along with independent candidates, competing in national and provincial elections. PakProfile.com sought the insights of numerous political experts and, leveraging detailed feedback along with the research efforts of our team, delved into the political landscape across the four provinces of the country, where members of the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies will be elected.
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) maintains an effective monopoly over politics in Sindh, with the exception of the cities of Karachi and Hyderabad, where it contends with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP), representing Mohajirs, and the religious Jamaat-i-Islami (JI). Notably, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Tehreek Labaik Pakistan (TLP) have emerged as influential players in the urban belt of Sindh.
In Sindh, election results are expected to predominantly favor the PPP. The PPP is likely to secure the majority of rural seats, facing competition from the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) or PML-F. Out of the 37 rural seats in the National Assembly in Sindh, the PPP is expected to maintain its historical dominance. The party’s effective political management in the rural areas has limited the impact of opposing parties like PML-F or GDA.
The focus shifts to urban Sindh, encompassing the 21 seats of Karachi and three of Hyderabad. Historically dominated by the MQM since the mid-1980s, the 2013 elections witnessed the emergence of PTI as a significant challenger in Karachi, signaling a shift in dynamics. The recent delimitation has further influenced the MQM’s traditional vote bank.
Despite mergers among different factions of the MQM for the upcoming elections, challenges still persist. The MQM may secure a dozen seats, but the changing political landscape has allowed the PPP to aspire to double-digit representation in the megapolis. While PTI (Independent candidates) remains a strong contender, its efforts to build support have been limited since May 9, and it is believed that it may not secure a substantial number of seats.
The strengthened alliance between the MQM and PML-N is poised to impact Karachi’s political landscape, influencing the future trajectory of MQM and reshaping the overarching theme of its politics.
In Balochistan, electoral politics is characterized by the dominance of ethno-national parties such as the Baloch National Party (BNP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), which emerged in GE-2018.
Anticipated outcomes in Balochistan suggest a divided verdict. The MMAP is poised for a commendable performance, particularly in the Pashtun belt. The Pashtun nationalist party, PkMAP is expected to fare well in its stronghold, alongside NP and BNP. The PPP, which initiated the Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan package aimed at bolstering Balochistan’s financial and political strength, is anticipated to have a substantial share in the provincial government.
Aside from the MMAP, another significant player could be the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). It is expected to form a government with the support of PPPP, ANP, and other smaller parties and independents.
Elections are notably competitive in KP. After PTI (independent candidates), ANP and religious parties such as JI and JUI-F. JUI-F maintains a strong hold in KP’s South Districts, as well as in Waziristan, Bajaur, Batagram, and Kohistan.
ANP, PPPP, PTI, and even moderate parties, including QWP-S, enjoy popularity in Peshawar Division, covering Peshawar city, Swabi, Nowshera, Charsadda, and Mardan. The religious party JI has a significant presence in Buner, Chitral, Upper Dir, and Lower Dir, while PML-N holds popularity in Shangla, Hazara, including Abbottabad and Mansehra. In the Malakand region (Swat and its adjoining areas), ANP, PPP, along with the PML-N and MMAP, are anticipated to present a formidable challenge to the PTI.
A coalition government is anticipated, as several PTI leaders, including former Chief Minister KP and defence minister Pervaiz Khattak, have parted ways from the party along with other leaders. Many bigwigs from KP including former chief minister Mehmood Khan are part of the PTI Parliamentarians who are also hopeful to win seats.
In Punjab, PTI’s Independent and PML-N currently command good levels of support, marking a shift from the previously held vote banks by the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid (PML-Q) in few districts. The political landscape is further influenced by the emergence of the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), primarily comprised of dissatisfied PTI members
This environment fosters a situation where influential local leaders can position themselves as viable electoral candidates by leveraging their economic and social resources. They mobilize vote blocs through patronage to constituents in their constituencies, often based on clientelism and kinship ties.
Punjab remains a crucial battleground in general elections, with 141 seats out of the 266 directly elected seats in the National Assembly. The province can be broadly categorized into three regions.
In North Punjab, or the Potohar region, known as the “martial belt” , the PML-N is expected to perform well on 13 seats. However, PTI’s Independents positioned strongly in two out of three seats from Islamabad capital territory.
In Central Punjab, the PML-N stronghold, the party is anticipated to secure a majority of the total 82 seats. The PML-N’s vote bank in this region is expected to stay intact while PML-Q is also expected to secure seats from the region.
South Punjab is a critical region that could significantly impact the electoral landscape. Comprising 11 districts and around 32 percent of Punjab’s local population, South Punjab holds 46 National Assembly seats and 94 Punjab Provincial Assembly seats. This region has been subject to substantial political engineering, with candidates compelled to switch loyalties. The PTI (Independent candidates) faces challenges in this region due to defections and a lack of party organization. The sudden resurgence of the demand for a separate South Punjab province has been a factor in some desertions from the PTI, though its impact on voters remains uncertain. The PPPP, with a strong traditional feudal vote bank in this region, may pick up a few seats, hinting at the possibility of a revival for the party in Punjab.
Another political clash is expected with IPP candidates contesting in Central and South Punjab. The overall current political environment in the country, particularly in the lead-up to the elections, is marked by dynamic and sometimes tense interactions among major political parties.
Mainstream political parties like PML-N and PPPP are actively engaged in forming alliances to secure a position that enhances their chances of forming the government at the center. The battle for Punjab holds particular significance in determining the final electoral outcome. The current political landscape is marked by a tense dynamic between the PPPP and PML-N, with the PTI sidelined after May 9, and internal dissensions within the PTI further complicating the political scenario.
PPP is primarily focusing its efforts in Sindh and encounters challenges in forging crucial alliances with influential politicians in Punjab.
